Allianz 攀登忧虑之墙——2023年夏季经济展望.pdfVIP

Allianz Trade 20 June 2023 04 10 Economics - no recovery Capital markets – playing before mid-2024 the waiting game Allianz Research Climbing the wall of worries Summer Economic Outlook Allianz Research Executive Summary Ludovic Subran, • Some larger economies slipped into recession earlier this year amid a Chief Economist ludovic.subran@ difficult global economic outlook, with GDP growth averaging at only +2.5% and +2.3% in 2023-24, respectively. The manufacturing and Ana Boata, global trade recessions dragged several economies into a technical Head of Economic Research ana.boata@ recession in Q1 2023 (Germany, Singapore, Taiwan). Residual effects of tighter monetary policy are set to shape a tempered 2023-24 Andreas Jobst, growth scenario, with the US and Eurozone heading towards a Head of Macroeconomic Capital Markets Research t@ soft landing and a subdued rebound in 2024, especially as Europe faces the prospect of a tighter financing landscape for longer. Most Ano Kuhanathan, advanced economies are expected to avoid a full-fledged recession Head of Corporate Research ano.kuh