概率图模型导论——概率论与图论相结合.pptVIP

第十讲 概率图模型导论 Chapter 10 Introduction to Probabilistic Graphical Models浙江大学计算机学院《人工智能引论》课件 OutlinePreparationsProbabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)Directed PGMUndirected PGMInsights of PGM OutlinePreparationsPGM “is” a universal modelDifferent thoughts of machine learningDifferent training approachesDifferent data typesBayesian FrameworkChain rules of probability theoryConditional IndependenceProbabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)Directed PGMUndirected PGMInsights of PGM Different thoughts of machine learningStatistics (modeling uncertainty, detailed information) vs. Logics (modeling complexity, high level information)Unifying Logical and Statistical AI. Pedro Domingos, University of Washington. AAAI 2006.Speech: Statistical information (Acoustic model + Language model + Affect model…) + High level information (Expert/Logics) Different training approachesMaximum Likelihood Training: MAP (Maximum a Posteriori) vs. Discriminative Training: Maximum Margin (SVM)Speech: classical combination – Maximum Likelihood + Discriminative Training Different data typesDirected acyclic graph (Bayesian Networks, BN)Modeling asymmetric effects and dependencies: causal/temporal dependence (e.g. speech analysis, DNA sequence analysis…)Undirected graph (Markov Random Fields, MRF)Modeling symmetric effects and dependencies: spatial dependence (e.g. image analysis…) PGM “is” a universal modelTo model both temporal and spatial data, by unifyingThoughts: Statistics + LogicsApproaches: Maximum Likelihood Training + Discriminative Training Further more, the directed and undirected models together provide modeling power beyond that which could be provided by either alone. Bayesian FrameworkWhat we care is the conditional probability, and it’s is a ratio of two marginal probabilities.A posteriori probabilityLikelihoodPriori probabilityClass iNormalization factorObservationProblem description Observation ? Conclusion (classification or prediction)Bayesian rule Chain rules of prob