麦肯锡 工业自动化是否正在走向转折点？.pdf

Is industrial automation headed for a tipping point? A gradually evolving industry now faces nonlinear competition and technological shifts. Here are two key scenarios for the future. by Harald Bauer, David Ebenstein, Giulietta Poltronieri, and Jan Paul Stein June 2023 Executive summary Over the past few decades, industrial automation has evolved gradually, with few changes in market structure. But the pace of change is accelerating thanks to technology disruptions and macrotrends such as reshoring, a global skilled-labor shortage, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) efforts. Innovations in digitalization and connectivity as well as advances in processing power and design regularly disrupt markets. In the smartphone market, the iPhone and the iTunes ecosystem redefined what consumers wanted and how they would get it. The idea of software-defined cars that could be updated over the air—sometimes called “smartphones on wheels”—first became reality in the automotive market in 2012. Is the day likewise coming when software-defined manufacturing will turn shop floors into “smartphones with robotic arms”? A scenario analysis by McKinsey suggests that the answer is yes. According to our analysis, many of today’s most advanced trends in manufacturing technologies—such as digital twins, robots capable of teaching themselves, and devices that can do their own programming—will become commonplace in the future. These trends will enable a “software-defined” paradigm for industrial automation. It is harder to predict when this future will arrive. It may come in 15 years, but it also may come in five years, depending on the speed of technological advances and their adoption in different industrial sectors. Which time frame turns out to be correc