大型客运站城市交通客流到达分布模型与方法研究的中期报告.docxVIP

大型客运站城市交通客流到达分布模型与方法研究的中期报告 中期报告 摘要： 本研究旨在针对大型客运站的城市交通客流到达分布问题，提出一种新的模型与方法。本研究采用了基于社会网络的交通出行研究方法，通过对客运站周边居民及其常去地点进行问卷调查、数据采集、信息处理与分析，探究了不同出行目的、不同出行人群所产生的客运站客流，提出了新的客流到达分布模型。 首先，本研究建立了客运站周边社会网络模型，通过对该模型进行分析，提出了客运站周边4种不同的居民类型，他们的出行行为和出行目的存在明显差异。基于此，本研究分别提出了基于居民模型和基于常去地点模型的客运站客流到达分布模型，并基于实际数据进行了模型的验证。 本研究的初步结论为：对于同一客运站，不同类型的居民和不同常去地点的客流到达分布模型存在显著差异；同时，在实际应用中，基于常去地点模型具有更好的预测性能。 未来工作将主要围绕如何提高模型的精度和预测性能，将更注重对现场调查数据的收集和分析，并借助机器学习算法等方法进行模型的改进和优化。 关键词：客运站；城市交通客流；社会网络；居民模型；常去地点模型；机器学习 Abstract: The aim of this research is to propose a new model and method for the distribution of urban traffic flow to large passenger transportation hubs. The study adopts a transportation study method based on social networks, and investigates the passenger flow generated by different travel purposes and different types of travelers around the passenger transportation hub by conducting questionnaire surveys, data collection, information processing, and analysis. We propose a new passenger flow distribution model based on the analysis of various factors related to the passenger flow. Firstly, we establish a social network model of the surrounding area of the passenger transportation hub and propose four different types of residents, whose travel behavior and purpose differ significantly. Based on this, we propose passenger flow distribution models based on residential and frequently visited locations, respectively, and validate the models with actual data. The preliminary conclusion of this research is that there is a significant difference in the passenger flow distribution model of different types of residents and frequently visited locations at the same passenger transportation hub, and the model based on frequently visited locations has better predictive performance in practical application. Future work will focus on improving the accuracy and predictive performance of the model, and will pay more attention to the collection and analysis of on-site survey data, as well as improve and optimiz