基于区间分析的钻井工程风险评价方法.docxVIP

第41卷第4期 2013年7月石 油 钻 探 技 术 Vol.41 第41卷第4期 2013年7月 PETROLEUM DRILLING TECHNIQUES Jul.,2013 “973”计划专题 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0890.2013.04.004 基于区间分析的钻井工程风险评价方法 管志川1,魏 凯1,2,傅盛林1,赵廷峰1 (1. 中国石油大学(华东)石油工程学院，山东青岛266580;2.中国石油渤海钻探工程有限公司，天津300280) 摘 要：针对钻井基础信息参数存在不确定性的问题，以区间分析方法和可靠性理论为基础，通过分析钻井过 程中井下故障发生的力学致险机理，建立了钻井工程风险的非概率可靠性评价方法。该方法只需根据先验信息确 定出井下故障的风险评价函数和风险因素的上下界，即可进行风险系数计算。确定了几种常见井下故障的风险评 价函数，根据区间变量运算法则推导出了风险系数表达式。以西部某区块的W 井为例进行了验证分析，结果表 明，该方法计算简便、实用，能够满足工程实际需要。 关键词：钻井工程钻井参数不确定性区间数学风险分析风险系数 中图分类号：TE28+3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-0890(2013)04-0015-04 Risk Evaluation Method for Drilling Engineering Based on Interval Analysis Guan Zhichuan, Wei Kail.2, Fu Shenglin, Zhao Tingfeng (1.School of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Huadong),Qingdao,Shan- dong,266580,China;2.CNPC Bohai Drilling Engineering Company Limited,Tianjin,300280,China) Abstract: In view of the uncertainty in basic drilling parameters,through the analysis of mechanical risk mechanism of downhole accidents in drilling,non-probabilistic reliability evaluation method was estab- lished for drilling engineering risk based on interval analysis method and reliability theory. This method could calculate risk factor after risk evaluation function and the upper and lower bounds of risk factors were established according to prior information. Risk evaluation functions for several common downhole com- plexities were set up in the paper while the formulas of risk factors were derived from interval variable al- gorithm. Taking Well W in some western region as an example, the evaluation results indicated that the method,simple and practical,could satisfy the needs of engineering practice. Key words: drilling engineering;drilling parameter;uncertainty;interval mathematics