澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）：商业地产的金融稳定风险.pptx

Photo: joe daniel price – Getty Images Abstract Current conditions in global commercial real estate (CRE) markets are challenging. Weak leasing demand and higher interest rates are weighing on CRE owners’ loan servicing ability and asset values. Globally, appetite to lend to CRE investors is softening and signs of financial stress are emerging especially among office owners in the United States. While CRE markets are less likely to pose risks to the banking system given improved lending standards following the global financial crisis (GFC), systemic risks are higher in jurisdictions where the banking system is more exposed to CRE, such as in the United States and Sweden. Australian CRE markets face similar challenging fundamentals, though signs of financial stress appear low at present and systemic risks are lower than in the past. This is a result of Australian banks’ reduced CRE exposures as a share of their total assets and tighter lending standards since the GFC. However, risks would increase in the event of a sharp economic downturn or if systemic risks were to spill over from overseas CRE markets. Financial Stability Risks from Commercial Real Estate Introduction Commercial real estate (CRE) markets have historically been one of the main sources of banks’ losses during periods of banking sector difficulties (Ellis and Naughtin 2010). This is because CRE markets tend to be more exposed to the business and credit cycle relative to other bank assets, and supply imbalances can build due to long construction times. Commercial property investors are often dependent on rental income, such that weak leasing conditions decrease owners’ income (and therefore the ability to service their loans) and the value of the underlying asset at the same time. CRE investors are also heavily exposed to refinancing risk, as their loans are mostly interest only and for relatively short terms. In addition, CRE Jin Lim, Matthew McCorm