运营管理可持续性和供应链管理Heizer_om13_ppt_04.pptxVIP

Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain ManagementThirteenth Edition, Global EditionChapter 4Forecasting Forecasting Provides a Competitive Advantage for Disney (1 of 4)Global portfolio includes parks in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Paris, Tokyo, Orlando, and AnaheimRevenues are derived from people - how many visitors and how they spend their moneyDaily management report contains only the forecast and actual attendance at each park Forecasting Provides a Competitive Advantage for Disney (2 of 4)Disney generates daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and 5-year forecastsForecast used by labor management, maintenance, operations, finance, and park schedulingForecast used to adjust opening times, rides, shows, staffing levels, and guests admitted Forecasting Provides a Competitive Advantage for Disney (3 of 4)20% of customers come from outside the USAEconomic model includes gross domestic product, cross-exchange rates, arrivals into the USAA staff of 35 analysts and 70 field people survey 1 million park guests, employees, and travel professionals each year Forecasting Provides a Competitive Advantage for Disney (4 of 4)Inputs to the forecasting model include airline specials, Federal Reserve policies, Wall Street trends, vacation/holiday schedules for 3,000 school districts around the worldAverage forecast error for the 5-year forecast is 5%Average forecast error for annual forecasts is between 0% and 3% Learning Objectives (1 of 2)When you complete this chapter you should be able to:4.1 Understand the three time horizons and which models apply for each4.2 Explain when to use each of the four qualitative models4.3 Apply the naive, moving-average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods Learning Objectives (2 of 2)When you complete this chapter you should be able to:4.4 Compute three measures of forecast accuracy4.5 Develop seasonal indices4.6 Conduct a regression and correlation analysis4.7 Use a tracking signal What is Forecasting?The art and science of predicting