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The last
hike
Allianz Research
4 October 2023
Executive summary
Ultra long political year, • Muddle-through economics in the making due to normalizing consumption and wait-and-see mode in a very electoral
1 year. Consumer demand will remain soft amid negative wealth effects and increasing precautionary savings.
recession (mostly) avoided, Corporates are navigating decelerating revenue growth and a wage pinch. Global trade to rebound timidly but global
inflation (mostly) circumscribed south affected by muted northern and eastern engines of growth.
• Inflation is pushed down by lower demand, inventory gluts and China. Wavelets from higher and more volatile energy
and wage pressures to stay.
Toxic policy mix in the short- • Monetary policy to pivot mid- or late 2024 everywhere as the job is done and recession-avoidance persists. Much higher
2 for much longer would trigger recession as the credit channel is impaired and a repayment wall looms ahead.
run, and return of dirigisme in • All ayes on fiscal. A fiscal cliff is expected in 2024 after some largesse. Market discipline (debt burden) will continue to
the medium-term play a role but beware of dirigisme in a cold war II environment favoring costly industrial policies.
Markets: between a micro rock • With the policy rates peaking there is little upside left for long-term rates. But with the supply-demand picture looking
3
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