(11.16)--基于模糊综合评价的宁波暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划.pdfVIP

基于模糊综合评价的宁波暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划 摘 要：基于自然灾害风险理论，综合考虑自然环境和社会经济状况以及暴雨洪涝灾害风险的危险性、敏感性、脆弱性和 防灾减灾能力，利用模糊综合评价法、AHP熵权法、GIS空间分析技术和网格GIS技术，建立宁波市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区 划模型，绘制宁波市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划图。结果表明，宁波、北仑、宁海和象山城区以及鄞州中南部、余姚中部和北 部具有更高的暴雨洪涝灾害风险；而慈溪北部、奉化西部、鄞州和北仑东部的暴雨洪涝灾害风险相对较低。灾级指数与 暴雨洪涝风险指数的相关性较好，相关系数达到0.8217，且通过了0.01显著性水平检验。 关键词：暴雨洪涝；网格GIS；模糊综合评价；风险区划；宁波市 中图法分类号:P426.616 文献标志码：Ａ doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.04.010 Riskdivisionofrainstormandwater-loggingdisastersinNingboCitybasedonfuzzy comprehensiveevaluation HUBo,DINGYeyi,HELide,GUSinan,HUANGHelou,ZHAOWujie,WANGWujun,WUFangping1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 (1.Ningbo Meteorological Office of Zhejianjg Province, Ningbo 315012; 2.Fenghua Meteorological Station of Zhejianjg Province, Fenghua 315500) Abstract:Thestudypresentsamethodologyforbuildingariskdivisionmodelanddrawingariskdivisionmapofrainstormandwater-log- gingdisastersinNingbocity.Basedonfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethod,AHP(AnalyticHierarchyProcess)entropymethod,GISspa- tialanalysistechniqueandgriddingGIStechnology,themodelisbuiltonthebasisofnaturalandsocioeconomicsituationsinadditiontothe hazard，sensitivity,exposure,disasterpreventionandmitigationcapacityofrainstormandwater-logging.Theresultsshowthatthehighrisk regionsofrainstormandwater-loggingdisasterslocateintheurbanareasofNingbo,Beilun,NinghaiandXiangshan,south-centralYinzhou, centralandnorthernYuyao,whilethelowriskregionsarethenorthernCixi,westernFenghua,theeastofYinzhouandBeilun.Disasterlevel andriskindexhaveagoodcorrelation,andthecorrelationcoefficientreaches0.8217andpassesthesignificanttestat0.01level. Keywords:rainstormandwater-logging;griddingGIS;fuzzycomprehensiveevaluation;riskdivision;NingboCity 用卫星遥感影像评估了印度比哈尔邦2008 年洪涝面 引 言 积，并结合易涝区与社会经济数据生成印度比哈尔邦 随着全球气候变暖，极端气候事件增多，暴雨洪 暴雨洪涝风