The Rise of the Artilect - Heaven or Hell Artilect 的崛起：天堂还是地狱.doc

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The Rise of the Artilect - Heaven or Hell Artilect 的崛起：天堂还是地狱.doc

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TheRiseoftheArtilect

HeavenorHell

Prof.Dr.HugodeGaris

Director,ArtificialBrainLab,

DepartmentofCognitiveScience,

Schoolof

XiamenUniversity,Xiamen

profhugodegaris@

Abstract

Thispapercritiquescertainoveroptimisticattitudestowardstheriseoftheartilect(i.e.agodlike,massivelyintelligentmachine)laterthiscentury,byspellingoutmoreclearlythemanywaysinwhichthingscouldgoverybadlywrongastheIQgapbetweenhumansandmachinescloses.

Introduction

Thisintroductorysectionestablishesthecontextofthe“speciesdominancedebate”(i.e.whetherhumanityshouldorshouldnotbuildartilects(artificialintellects)laterthiscentury.

Moore’sLaw(thatthenumberoftransistorsplacedonachipkeepsdoublingevery18monthsorso)hasbeentrueformorethan40yearsandislikelytoremaintrueatleastuntilabout2020,bywhichtimeitshouldbetechnicallypossibletoputasinglebitofinformationonasingleatom.Atsuchtinyscales,theswitchingtimeofanatom(thetimetakentoswitcha“0”stateintoa“1”state,orviceversa)isfemto-seconds,i.e.10-15ofasecond.Thereareatrilliontrillionatomsinanyhandheldobject,soifeachatomcouldbe“nanoteched”intoa“nanocomputer”,witheachatomswitchinginfemto-seconds,thenthetotalcomputingcapacityofsuchahandsizeddevicewouldbeabout1040bitsasecond,whichisabout1024(i.e.atrilliontrillion)timestheequivalentestimatedswitchingcapacityofthehumanbrain(whichisthoughttobeabout1016bitspersecond).Reversible(i.e.nonheatproducing)computingtechniqueswillallow3Dcircuitstobemadewithvirtuallynolimittosize,sincetherewouldbenoheatdissipationproblem,aswehavetoday.Oneisthenfreetoconceiveofasteroidsizedcomputerswithabitprocessingrateofabout1060bitspersecond,vastlysuperiortothehumanrate.Withasteroidsized(topological)quantumcomputers,withtheirexponentiallysu