IMF-推动还是追随增长?资本流入对接受国经济的因果效应(英)-2024.1.docx

IMF-推动还是追随增长?资本流入对接受国经济的因果效应(英)-2024.1.docx

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FuelingorFollowingGrowth?

CausalEffectsofCapitalInflowsOnRecipientEconomies

NicolasEnd

WP/24/15

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthorandarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

2024

JAN

?2024InternationalMonetaryFund WP/24/15

IMFWorkingPaper

Strategy,Policy,andReviewDepartment

Fuelingorfollowinggrowth?

CausaleffectsofcapitalinflowsonrecipienteconomiesPreparedbyNicolasEnd1

AuthorizedfordistributionbyAzimM.SadikovJanuary2024

IMFWorkingPapers

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthorandarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Identifyingthecausalimpactofcapitalinflowsongrowthanddevelopmenthasbeenaperennialchallenge.Thispaperproposesanewwaytoinvestigatetheeffectofcapitalflowsonrecipientemerginganddevelopingeconomies,usingshift-shareinstrumentsandcorrectingforindirectflows.Itfindsasignificantlybeneficialeffectofloanandbondinflowsoneconomicperformance,whichmaterializesafterafewyears.Italsofindssomeconfirmationthattheabsorptivecapacityofrecipienteconomiesdependsontheirfundamentals.

RECOMMENDEDCITATION:End,Nicolas(2024),“Fuelingorfollowinggrowth?Causaleffectsofcapitalinflowsonrecipienteconomies”IMFWorkingPaper24/15.

JELClassificationNumbers:

E44,F21,F30

Keywords:

Capitalflows;economicgrowth;shift-shareinstrument

Author’sE-MailAddress:

nend@

1TheauthorisindebtedtoT.Onoda(JapanBankforInternationalCooperation—JBIC),whoparticipatedinthisresearch.Theauthorwouldalsoliketothan

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