捕获再捕获分析专家讲座课件.pptx

Capturerecaptureanalysis

捕捉-再捕捉分析;Whatisitfor?为何?;Overview概要;Originsofcapture-recaptureanalysis

捕捉-再捕捉分析方法起源;Applicationofcapture-recaptureanalysistohumanepidemiology

捕捉-再捕捉分析在人类流行病学上应用;Principles标准;;;;;;;Criticalassumptions/conditions

主要假设／条件;Applicationtohumans

在人群上应用;仅在第一次

被捕捉;;;Estimation预计;Capture(SourceA)recapture(SourceB);Sensitivityofsources:

样本起源敏感性

Ifnumbersincellssmall,probabilitythatx11=0

isnotzero?

如果数字较小,X11=0可能性不为0;Conditions条件;Samestudyperiodandarea

相同研究期间和地域;Closedpopulation封闭人群;Truecases真正案例;Truematches真正匹配;Equalcatchability被捕捉可能性相同;Accountingforvariablecatchability

对不一样被捕捉可能性加以说明;Sourcesareindependent(+++)

独立样本;;;;Example;Evaluationofsourcedependence;BehavioralSurveillanceUsingRespondentDrivenSampling

用同伴推进抽样法进行行为监测

;PresentationOutline提要;ProbabilitySampling概率抽样

(Simple单纯随机,Systematic系统,Cluster整群);SamplingMethodstoReachHiddenPopulations

针对隐匿人群抽样方法;BackgroundonRDS

RDS背景;HowRDSWorks

怎样做RDS;TheTheoryBehindRDS

RDS理论关键点;;;;;;;ALongReferralChain:

JazzMusiciansinNewYorkCity;SelectionofSeeds;ExampleinHaiPhongVietnam

越南海防例子;EligibilityCriteria

入选标准;Coupon:FrontSide卡片正面;Coupon:BackSide卡片后面;NetworksofCSWsinHaiPhong;AnetworkinHaiPhong;InitialLessonsfromVietnam

越南初步经验;InitialLessonsfromVietnam(Cont);Philosophicalobjection?

哲学上异议?;Practicallimitations

操作上不足之处;Extrapolationisbasedonassumptions;Conclusion小结;Caveats警告;References;Recentexamplesofapplicationtofieldepidemiology;SpecialthankstoNancyCrowcroft

HealthProtectionAgency

London

Manyofthecapture-recaptureanalysisslides

comedirectlyfromherclassatEpi-Et.

;THANKYOU!;RDS:Advantages

;RDS:Limitations;Option1:UseRDSwithInstitutionalData;ExampleofCapture-Recapture;EstimatingtheNumberofJazzMusiciansinNYCusingtheLogicofCapture/Recapture;Multiplesources;

WittesMethod;;Testofindependence;;Analyzerelationshipbetweencategoricalvariablesinacon