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Globalmegatrends
andthequestfor
povertyeradication
Abstract
Globalmegatrendssuchasincomeinequality,climate
change,demographicshifts,technologicalprogress,and
urbanisationareshapingthefutureofsocieties.Yet,their
quantitativeimpactsondevelopmentareneitherwell
understoodnorestablished.Thispaperexaminesthe
individualandcombinedeffectsoftheseglobalforceson
poverty,usingbothcross-sectionandpanelestimation
techniquesonaglobaldatasetcoveringtheperiodfrom1995
to2019.Regardingthedirecteffects,itfindsthatinequality,
urbanization,andtechnologyarethemegatrendswitha
robustimpactonpovertyinboththelongandmediumterms.
Demographicshiftsandclimatechangehavesomeimpact
onpoverty,buttheresultsdependonthesamplesand
specificationsconsidered.Furthermore,thepaperfindsthat
inadditiontotheirdirecteffects,technology,urbanization,
anddemographic.shiftsaffectpovertythroughtheir
interactionswithincomeinequality.Amongthecontrols,per
capitaincome,education,andprivatecreditaresignificant
driversinthemediumterm,whilepercapitaincomeisthe
onlycontrolvariablethatmattersinthelongrun.
Keywords
Poverty,rnegatrends,inequality,technology,climatechange,
demography,urbanization.
Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthor(sJanddonotneces淀rily
reflectthevie1•1SoftheUnitedNationsor芯officialsorMemberStates.Thed部ignationsem伙陟dandthe
presentationofmaterialonanymapinthis1vor1donotimplytheexpressionofanyop吓onwhalsoellflronthe
partoftheUnitedNationsconcerningthele创statusofanycountr
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