联合国贸易发展委员会-全球大趋势与消除贫穷的努力（英）-2024.pdf

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Globalmegatrends

andthequestfor

povertyeradication

Abstract

Globalmegatrendssuchasincomeinequality,climate

change,demographicshifts,technologicalprogress,and

urbanisationareshapingthefutureofsocieties.Yet,their

quantitativeimpactsondevelopmentareneitherwell

understoodnorestablished.Thispaperexaminesthe

individualandcombinedeffectsoftheseglobalforceson

poverty,usingbothcross-sectionandpanelestimation

techniquesonaglobaldatasetcoveringtheperiodfrom1995

to2019.Regardingthedirecteffects,itfindsthatinequality,

urbanization,andtechnologyarethemegatrendswitha

robustimpactonpovertyinboththelongandmediumterms.

Demographicshiftsandclimatechangehavesomeimpact

onpoverty,buttheresultsdependonthesamplesand

specificationsconsidered.Furthermore,thepaperfindsthat

inadditiontotheirdirecteffects,technology,urbanization,

anddemographic.shiftsaffectpovertythroughtheir

interactionswithincomeinequality.Amongthecontrols,per

capitaincome,education,andprivatecreditaresignificant

driversinthemediumterm,whilepercapitaincomeisthe

onlycontrolvariablethatmattersinthelongrun.

Keywords

Poverty,rnegatrends,inequality,technology,climatechange,

demography,urbanization.

Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthor(sJanddonotneces淀rily

reflectthevie1•1SoftheUnitedNationsor芯officialsorMemberStates.Thed部ignationsem伙陟dandthe

presentationofmaterialonanymapinthis1vor1donotimplytheexpressionofanyop吓onwhalsoellflronthe

partoftheUnitedNationsconcerningthele创statusofanycountr