高盛-拼多多-temu进展跟踪及1q回顾.docx

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2024-05-26 发布于北京
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高盛-拼多多-temu进展跟踪及1q回顾.docx

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Neutral

16May2024|10:08AMHKT

PDDHoldings(PDD)

Temuprogresscheck1Qpreview:Expectsolid1QtoplineandnarrowerTemulosses;yetuncertaintieslingeroncompetition;Neutral

PDD12mPriceTarget:$145.00Price:$141.30Upside:2.6%

WeseeapotentialsimilarsetupforPDD’supcoming1Qresultscomparedwithlastquarter,withsolidonlinemarketingrevenues(GSe:+46%yoyvs.V.A.consensusof+40%)andagroupEBIT

beat(GSe:Rmb18bnvs.V.A.consensusofRmb15bn)on

narrower-than-StreetexpectedTemulossesonthebackofreportedTemu’ssemi-entrustedmodelrolloutintheUS,aswellasourlatestTemuprogresschecks.However,weexpectthemarkettocontinuetohaveforward-lookingconcerns,duetoanintensifyingdomesticcompetitivelandscape.Wecontinuetoexpectslower-than-Street

domestictakerateexpansionpaceaheadforPDD,onthebackofAlibaba’sreignitedGMVgrowth(double-digitGMVgrowthat

Taobao-Tmall)andincreaseinsupplyofROI-basedadinventoryover2024-25(seeourAlibabareview),whereTaobaohasbeenre-gainingsomeconsumermindshareasthemostpricecompetitiveplatform(basedonourpricechecks).Meanwhile,weexpectTemu’s1Qandfullyearlossestosigni?cantlynarrow(atamuchsmallerTemu

1Q24EEBITlossofRmb4.9bnthanV.A.consensusatRmb7.7bn)on

thebackofasizableshiftfromfully-entrustedtosemi-entrusted

modelinUS(whereTemunolongertakescareoflogistics).WhilePDDhasalreadyunderperformedvs.peersyear-to-date(-3%

year-to-datevs.Alibaba+8%/KWEB+20%),givenstilllimited

investorappetiteinvaluingPDD’sTemufullbusinesspotentialon

geopoliticaluncertaintiesandriskstodomestictakerates/growthoverrestof2024-25inanincreasinglyzero-sumChinaeCommercemarket,wecontinuetoholdourout-of-consensusNeutralviewonPDDwitharevisedSOTP-based,12-monthTPofUS$145ona

sector-relativebasis(fromUS$143

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