ECB—Delivers bp Cut Upgrades Growth and Inflation Projections-此为英文文档.docxVIP

ECB—Delivers bp Cut Upgrades Growth and Inflation Projections-此为英文文档.docx

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6June2024|4:55PMBST

ECB—Delivers25bpCut;UpgradesGrowthandIn?ationProjections

BOTTOMLINE:TheGoverningCouncilcutpolicyratesby25bp,aswidelyexpected.TheguidancereiteratedtheCouncil’sdata-dependentandmeeting-by-meeting

approach,butthedecisionremovedtheeasingbiasintroducedattheAprilmeeting.

Atthesametime,PresidentLagardesuggestedduringthepressconferencethatthedirectionanddestinationforpolicywereclear,andthatthespeedandtimingofnextstepswouldbedeterminedbytheincomingdata.TheEurosystemstaff

projectionsshowedasigni?cantupgradetogrowthin2024andamorelimitedupgradetoin?ationin2024-2025withnochangesto2026.

KEYNUMBERS:

ECBPolicyRate:3.75%,GS:3.75%,consensus:3.75%,previous4.00%.

MAINPOINTS:

1.TheGoverningCouncilcutpolicyratesby25bp,aswidelyexpected.TheguidancereiteratedtheCouncil’sdata-dependentandmeeting-by-meetingapproach,butthe

decisionremovedtheeasingbiasintroducedattheAprilmeeting.PresidentLagardeaccordinglyheldbackfromcon?rmingthata“diallingbackprocess”wasunderwayduringthepressconference.Atthesametime,shesuggestedthatthedirectionanddestinationforpolicywereclear,andthatthespeedandtimingofthenextsteps

wouldbedeterminedbytheincomingdata.Shealsonotedthattheneutralratewasstill“faraway.”

_2.TheEurosystemstaffprojectionsforrealGDPgrowthshowedasigni?cant+0.3ppupgradeto0.9%in2024,re?ectingthemarking-to-marketofQ1aswellas+0.2pp

_

and+0.1ppupgradesto0.4%qoq(non-annualised)forQ2andQ3,respectively.TheGoverningCouncilstatedthatitexpectedtherecoverytocontinueincoming

quarters,drivenbyhigherrealincomes,strongerexports,andadiminishingdragfrommonetarypolicy.

3.Corein?ationwasupgradedby+0.2ppto2.8%in2024,by+0.1ppto2.2%in

2025,andleftunchangedat2.0%in2026.Headlinein?ationwasupgraded+0.2ppto

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