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BEC考试阅读材料精选（一）
Forthemarkets,ratecutsarelikeadrug.Theycaninspireeuphoria,butcanalsoinducedependency.Markets,likeaddicts,needbiggerandbiggerdosestogetthesameeffect.Thishasframedthemarket’sprognosisfortheFederalReserve,whichtodaymeetstodecideonmonetarypolicy.Whenitcutby50basispointsinSeptember,itsparkedahugerally.Butcuttingbyonly25bpinOctoberpromptedarelapse,asUSstocksfellandcredittightenedoncemore.WithFedgovernorsadmittingthattheliquiditysqueezehadintensifiedandtradersbettingonarecession,marketsdecidedthatanother50bpcutmustbeforthcoming.Thatsparkedthelatestrally.Butthatspeculationisdimming:futuresarepricingacutof25bpnot50bp.Why?Centralbankssoundedhawkishlastweek.TheBankofEnglandcutthebankratebutwarnedoninflation,andtheEuropeanCentralBank,whichwasonhold,soundedclosertoraisingratesthancuttingthem.Mostimportant,however,isemploymentdata.TheFedismandatedtopursuefullemployment,sobadjobsnumbersprovidegreatcoverforabigratecut..LastFriday’snon-farmpayrollsdidnotprovideit.Thenumberemployedroseby94,000,comparedwithforecastsof80,000.Thisdatarefusestoslipintorecessionterritory.Thehouseholdsurvey,compiledbypollinghouseholdsratherthancompanies,evenshowsjobsgrowthpickingupslightly.CantheFedrestitsdiagnosisonthisdata?Firmstrackingthemoneycompanieswithholdfortaxpurposeswarnthatjobgrowthseemstohavestopped.ButtheFeddoesnotwanttoinduceadependencycultureinthemarkets,anditdoesnotwanttosignalthatitisscaredofarecession.A25bpcutintheFedFundsrate,possiblywithasteepercuttothehigherdiscountrate,atwhichitlendstobanks,looksthemostlikelyprescription.
对市场而言，降息如同毒品。它们能让人兴奋，但也能导致依赖。就像瘾君子同样，市场需要越来越大旳剂量，才能到达同样旳效果。这就为美联储(Fed)圈定了市场也许会有旳症状。今天，美联储将开会决定货币政策。当它今年9月降息50个基点时，曾引起市场大幅上扬。不过，由于10月仅降息25个基点，导致
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