中国游戏规则已变，沪深300冲向4600点（EN）.pdfVIP

Asia-PacificPortfolioStrategy

Chinachangesthegame

WeraiseChinatooverweightandincreaseourMXAPJindextargetonhigher

earningsandvaluations.Wemakeseveralsectorallocationchangesandhighlight

regionalstockswithChinaexposurealongwithourChina-specific

recommendations.

nWhathappened?China’scoordinatedforcefulpolicyannouncementshave

triggeredasignificantequityrally.TheMSCIChinaindexis+34%fromthe

M

Omid-Seplowandisnow+31%ytd,oneofbestindexperformancesglobally.

C

.

SnWhydidithappen?Theequitymarket’soutsizedgainshavebeendrivenbythe

B

A

Ccatalystofdecisivepolicymeasuresandthestartingconditionsofanoversold,

U

D

Aundervalued,andunder-positionedmarketbackdrop.

N

U

RnIstherefurtherupsideforChinaequities?Yes.Thecurrentrallyhasbrought

A

K

@MSCIChinaforwardP/Eto11.3x(-0.4s.d.).Valuationcouldexpandto12xon

S

Tpolicysupport.Weraise12mMXCN/CSI300targetsto84/4600implying15-18%

N

U

Oupsideintotalreturns.

C

C

A

fnWhatistheimpactonregionalequitymarkets?Marketswiththehighest

o

esensitivitytopolicy-drivenChinaralliesareAshares,HongKong,Korea,and

s

u

eTaiwan.Mostsensitivesectorsareautos,metalsmining,insurance,and

v

i

sinternet/media.

u

l

c

x

enHowdodevelopmentsinChinaimpactregionalviews?1)RaiseChinato

e

h

tOW.2)RaiseMXAPJ12mindextargetto690implying10%/14%local/USDtotal

r

o

Freturns.3)Upgradeinsurance(OW),metalsmining(MW);downgradetelecom

services(UW).4)RaiseMXAPJearningsgrowth1ppinboth2024and2025to

20%/14%.5)Highlightregion