【Jefferies-2025研报】家电渠道观察：为后补贴时代定位.pdfVIP

EquityResearch

China(PRC)|HomeAppliancesJune3,2025

AppliancesChannelObservations:Positioning

fortheEx-SubsidyEra

AsChinasappliancestrade-instimulusweakens,weexpectagreater

divergenceinMideaGreessharepriceperformance(withMidea

outperformingGree).WeexpectMideason-lineGMVgrowthtoexceedthat

ofGreeinthe618promotion.Inaddition,weexpectsolidFCFcompounding

byMideaevenwithoutthestimulus.Yet,weexpectGreesstructural

challengestobemorevisibleafterthestimulus.Wecontinuetoprefer

Midea(Buy)overGree(Unpf).

*Phase2trade-instimulusfadingasexpected.Weestimatecertainhomeappliances

storesinselectedregionshaveeitherstoppedorstartedtolimittheconsumptioncoupons

toconsumers.TheregionsincludeJiangsu,Chongqing,Shijiazhuang,andsomeregionsin

Guangdong.Thislikelymarksthegradualdepletionofthephase2funding.Wenotethatthe

phase1stimulusroughlycoveredAug2024toJan2025andthephase2startedafterthe

LunarNewYear.Thegradualdepletionisin-linewithourforecasts.Althoughweexpectthe

governmenttolaunchthephase3stimulusafterJuly,thesizethestimulusshouldreduce,in

ourview.

*DivergingtrendbetweenMideavs.Gree.WebelieveMideasdomestichomeappliancessell-

throughgrowthremainssolidinMayandearlyJune.However,wewitnessedslowinggrowth

byGreeowingtosignificantmarketsharelosses.Forinstance,weexpecta20%YoYGMV

growthbyMideason-linebusinessduringthefirststagepre-saleof618.However,weestimate

c.10%growthbyGree.

*Midea:Focusingonsuccessfulchannelreformand