【高盛-2025研报】以色列：通货膨胀出现显著下行意外，主要因机票价格大幅下跌.pdf

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15June2025|11:21PMBST

Israel:SigniﬁcantDownsideSurprisetoInﬂation,MainlyDuetoSharp

DeclineinAirfarePrices

HeadlineinﬂationinMayfellsigniﬁcantly,from+3.6%yoyto+3.1%yoy–aJohanAllen

+44(20)7774-7122|johan.allen@

signiﬁcantdownsidesurpriserelativetoconsensusexpectations(+3.5%yoy),andGoldmanSachsInternational

moresotoourforecast(+3.8%yoy).Theprintfollows(andlargelyundoes)theKevinDaly

+44(20)7774-5908|kevin.daly@

signiﬁcantupsidesurprisetoconsensusexpectationsinAprilandsimilartotheAprilGoldmanSachsInternational

print,thedriverofthesurpriserelativetoourforecastwasairfareprices,whichin

monthlytermsdeclinedby-7.9%mom(followingthe+15.9%momincreaselast

month,Exhibit1).Wehadassumedthatﬂightpriceswouldrisefurtherduetomedia

reportsofpricesspikingfollowingtheHouthiattackonBenGurionairport.Beyond

airfareprices,thecompositionoftheprintwaspositive:Coreinﬂationdeclined

(Exhibit2),reﬂectingbothweakergoodsandservicesinﬂation(Exhibit3andExhibit

4)andnon-coreinﬂationalsoweakened,especiallyfuelprices.

WithinﬂationreturningclosetotheupperboundoftheBoI’s+1.0-3.0%target

range,today’sprintisadovishdevelopmentforIsraelimonetarypolicyprospects.

Thatsaid,therecentgeopoliticalescalationbetweenIsraelandIranovershadows

theweaker-than-expectedprint,andwenotethattheBoIhasduringthepastyear

repeatedlypointedtoelevatedgeopoliticaluncertaintyasareasontorem

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