消费发力支撑经济增长，投资信心仍待加强——2025年第二季度粤港澳大湾区经济分析报告.docxVIP

消费发力支撑经济增长，投资信心仍待加强

摘要

2025年二季度，国际形势风云变幻，经济增长压力不小。美国高压关税政策下，大湾区企业市场空间和经济效益受到影响，生产有所放缓。政策发力提升国内消费以应对外部风险的效果明显，以旧换新、出口转内销和假日消费合力拉动下大湾区社消加速增长，成为支撑经济增长的重要因素。外贸出口增速较年初略有回升但仍处低位，中美经贸谈判有序进行背景下出口形势有望改善。消费的增长和外贸环境的改善并未明显提升企业扩大再生产的信心，企业投资仍呈现加速下滑的现象。综合来看，预计二季度大湾区GDP增长4.3%。

展望三季度，本文认为，大湾区经济仍将温和增长，呈现消费强外贸稳投资弱的局面。具体而言：（1）以旧换新政策和暑期效应仍支撑消费增长，需留意国补执行进度和以价换量的可持续性；（2）外贸形势短期内稳定，需关注欧日效仿美国取消小额包裹免税以及美国强化原产地规则的冲击；（3）积极的财政政策下基建投资增长趋势不变，工业投资预计仍将低迷。

Consumptiongrowswhileinvestmentdeclines

Abstract

InQ22025,drasticchangesoftheinternationalsituationputmuchpressureoneconomicgrowthoftheGreaterBayArea(GBA).ThehighuniversalandreciprocaltariffpolicyoftheUSobviouslyaffectedthebusinessoperationofGBAenterprises,manifestedaslowgrowthofproductionandnegativeprofits.Toreducetheimpactofexternalrisks,Governmenthassteppedupeffortsonpromotingdomesticconsumption.Policiessuchasgivingsubsidiesordiscountsforbuyingspecificproducts,togetherwiththeholidaytraveldemandsacceleratedthegrowthofconsumptionto3.7%inGBA.Exportsgrowthratewashigherthanthatinthebeginningoftheyear2025,theprogressofthenegotiationsbetweenChinaandUSislikelytopromotetherecoveryofexportinGBA.However,GBAenterprisesconfidenceininvestmentwasstillinsufficient,withadeclinationof8.9%.Accordingtoourprediction,theGDPgrowthrateofGBAislikelytobe4.3%inQ22025.

LookingaheadtoQ32025,webelievethattheGBAeconomywillcontinuetogrowmoderately,withthefeaturesofstrongconsumption,stableforeigntradeandweakdomesticinvestment.Specifically:(1)Thesubsidypolicyandthecomingsummervacationstillsupportthegrowthofconsumption.Attentionshouldbepaidtoproblemsintheimplementationofnationalsubsidiesandthesustainabilityoflowpricesales;(2)Foreigntradesituationwillberelativelystableintheshortterm.Butt