（英）中国无人驾驶出租车行业现状：2030年50万量级部署与盈亏平衡点探析.docxVIP

EquityResearch

ChinaTechnology

28July2025

ChinaTechnologyTheState

ChinaTechnology

TheStateofRobotaxiinChina

Webelievetherearecurrently2krobotaxisontheroadsin

and500kbe

IndustryUpdate

theserobotaxisrequiresignificantcapital,butitisalsoaslowprocess,especiallywhentheserobotaxiplayersdontowntheirownproductionfactories.

TeslasrecententryintotherobotaximarketinAustinwouldnaturallybegthefollowing

question-WillanyoftheChineseEVOEMsgetintotherobotaximarket?Wehavebeen

projectingthatthegrowthoftheChineseEVmarketwillstarttoslowasearlyas2026,whentodaysEVpenetrationisalreadyhoveringaround50%.ItappearstobeapotentialstepforEVmakerstolookelsewherefortheuseoftheEVsthattheirfactoriesarechurningoutin

Chinesecitiesweareexpecting300-robotaxistodeployedby2030.

Chinahasover500mnconsumerswhouseride-hailingservices,andthecurrentride-hailing

marketinChinaisabout16bntripsayear,growing~10%yoy.Theoverallon-demand

transportationmarketissplit50/50betweenridehailingandtaxi.Robotaxiiscompetingin

Chinashigher-tier-cityon-demandtransportmarket,whichincludes4.5-5mncars,andweexpecttherewillbe300-500krobotaxisdeployedinChinaby2030(5-10%penetration).

TheuniteconomicsinChinasrobotaximayalreadybeclosetooratbreak-eventoday,

excludingalltheup-frontdevelopmentcosts.WeestimatetodayscosttobuildarobotaxiinChinatobeabout$35-40k,broadlyinlinewithwhatElonMuskhasbeenguidingforthe

costofTeslasCybercab.Typically,theoperatingcostofarobotaxirideisspreadacrossvehiclecostdepreciation(around50%ofthetotal),operatingcentersupportstafflaborcost(~20%ofthetotal),andotheroperatingexpensesincludingcharging,insurance,license,etc.(~30%ofthetotal).

Butweexpectthebuildcostforro