有限理性与决策分析.pdfVIP

Rationalityhasvariousdefinitions,butthepurposeofdefinitionrationalityinanygivenwayisto

gaininsightsintodecision-makingprocessesandresultsandmakepredictions.

Boundedrationality:

Wemayhaveincompleteknowledgeorwemayhavecognitivefailuresintermsofthe

processingofinfowithinthegiventimeconstraints.

Heuristic:

Peopleusesimple“ru-of-thumb”,oftenunconsciously,inordertomakedecisionswhenthere

isalotofinformationinvolved,muchuncertainty,andarealistictimeconstraint.

Boundedrationalityisnotconcernedwithoptimality,orevensub-optimality;theheuristics

involvedinthedecision-makingprocessesofboundedrationalityaremorerelatedtosatirizing.

Heuristicsarebothagoodandabadmethodofdecision-making,dependingonthe

circumstances.

Evolutionaryview(nature):becauseofthewayinwhichourbrainsandmindshaveevolved,we

maybebadatperformingwhatmayseemsimpletasks,usinginappropriateheuristic

devices.However,thesearetasksthathaveneverbeenrequiredinourancestralpast.Onthe

otherhand,humanbeingsareextremelygoodatperformingcomplextaskswhatweneededto

begoodatinourevolutionarypast.

Emotion:

“Visceralfactors”:1.Astheyincreaseinintensity,theynarrowoutattentionontothe

satisfactionofthedrivestrongmakespeopeekextremecertaintyandsecurity;2.The

increaseinintensityalsofocusesattentiononthepresentattheexpenseofthe

futureshortsighteddecision

Inmoderation,visceralfactorstendtopromptustotakesensibleactions,butastheyincrease

inintensityanrrowourattentionexcessivelytheytendtocauseustomakeself-defeating

choices(Loewenstein1996).Evenmoderateanxietymayca