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Mid-YearCreditOutlook:Navigating
theCrosswinds
August2025
JohnCortese,RobBittencourt,AkilaGrewal,ShobhitGupta,TalBarakHarif,
PartnerandHeadofPartner,HeadofPartner,GlobalHeadManagingDirector,Principal,Head
PortfolioManagementThematicInvestingofProductCorporateCreditCreditWriter
KEYTAKEAWAYS
ResilientFundamentalsandRobustTechnicalsDroveshiftsduringthefirsthalfoftheyear,earlysignsofcapital
Performance:Tariff-drivenheadlinerisk,geopoliticalrotationoutofUSassetsmaybeemerging.Sovereign
volatility,andfiscalpolicyshiftscausedtemporarymarketfundsandcentralbanksarereallocatingtowardEurope—
dislocationsinthefirsthalf—butfailedtoderailthecreditfuelingstronginflowsintotheregion’sequityandcredit
cycle.Solidmacroandcorporatefundamentals,coupledmarkets.
withpersistentinstitutionaldemandandlimitednetnew
EuropeanPrivateCreditIsaScalable,Undersupplied
supply,anchoredcreditspreadsandperformance.While
Opportunity:Europe’sprivatecreditmarketislarge,
downsideriskshaveincreased,weexpectfundamentals
underpenetrated,andgainingmomentum.Non-bank
andtechnicalstoremainsupportivethroughyear-end.
lendingrepresentsanestimated12%ofcorporate
PublicCreditLiquidityIsBreakingDownandPrivatefinancingintheregion,comparedto75%in
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