英文【BSR】从气候科学到企业战略-2025.pdfVIP

WhitePaperWhitePaper

FromClimateScienceto

CorporateStrategy

Acredibleandpracticalapproachtoquantifying

climateriskanditsimpactonbusinessperformance

AmeerAzim-DirectorClimateandNature

SaadKhan-AssociateFinancialServicesandClimate

ExecutiveSummary

Thispaperintroducesaclimatescenario-adjusted

valuationmodelthatquantifiesclimaterisksinfinancial

termsbyintegratingclimatescience-basedscenario

analysiswithestablishedcorporatevaluationprinciples.

Wedesignedtheapproachtobetransparentand

auditable,fullyaligningwithemergingdisclosure

standards(suchasIFRSS2andtheEU’sESRSE1on

climate).12Thisensurestheframeworkcansupportboth

internalstrategicplanningandexternalreporting

requirements,directlyconnectingclimateriskfactorsto

companyfinancialperformance.

Atitscore,theframeworklinkstransitionrisks(e.g.policychanges,technologicalshifts,

marketdynamics,reputationalimpacts)andphysicalrisks(e.g.acutehazardslike

floodsorcyclones,chronicstresseslikeheatordrought)directlytocompanyfinancial

statementsthroughdefinedtransmissionchannels.Theanalysisdrawsonabroad

spectrumofdatafromclimatescienceandeconomics.WeuseNetworkforGreening

theFinancialSystem3(NGFS)scenarios(derivedfromintegratedassessmentmodels),

macroeconomicpathwaysfromNiGEM,4andgranularhazarddatasets(augmentedby

ETHZurich’sCLIMADA5software)tocapturepotentialimpacts.Theseriskdriversare

quantifiedaschangestorevenues,operatingcosts,capitalexpenditures(CapEx)and

assetimpairments,orfinancingcosts.Wethenintegratetheseimpactsintoastandard

discountedcashflow(DCF)valuationmodelwithstrictrulestoavoidanydouble

countingbetweenthecashflowprojectionsandthediscountrateadjustments.Inthis

BSR|F