2.26 日本低通胀困境已破？真相揭秘.docxVIP

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2.26 日本低通胀困境已破？真相揭秘.docx

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【2.26】

2.26每日一篇|熊猫外刊精读

Hopefulcentralbankers：Yieldingresults

HasJapantruly?escaped?low?inflation?

【1】Japanisusedtothepositioninwhichit?currently?findsitself:apartfromtherestoftherichworld.Elsewhere,as?inflation?exceeded?central-banktargets,rate-setters?tightened?monetary?policyinrough?proportion?tothesizeoftheir?overshoot.IftheBankofJapanhad?behaved?inasimilarmannertoitsG10?peers,notesTimBakerofDeutscheBank,thecountry’sinterestrateswouldhaveincreasedbytwopercentagepointsoverthepastfewyears.Instead,theybarelycreptup,risingfrom-0.1%to?0.25%,despitenearlythreeyearsofpricegrowthabovetheBoJ’stargetof?2%.PandaForeignMagazineIntensiveReading:RespectforOriginality,PiracyMustBePunished

【2】ThatisbecauseJapanesepolicymakerswouldliketokilloffthecountry’sdisinflationarydecadesonceandforall.They?received?agiftwhenthecurrentwaveof?inflation?arrivedfrom?overseas.In?2021?and?2022,asimportprices?surged?andtheyen?plunged,Japan?received?awhoppingcostshock.Companieshadlittlechoicebuttopassonhighercosts,intheprocess?breaking?a?taboo?againstpricerises.Workers,inturn,?received?astrong?incentive?toseekhigherwages.TheBoJ’spolicymakerswerepleased:theyhopedtoturna?bout?of?external?“cost-push”?inflation?intointernal“demand-pull”?inflation,bywayofa?virtuous?feedback?loopbetweenwagesandprices.

【3】Nowthecentralbankisbeginningtochange?tack.OnJanuary?24thpolicymakerswillalmostcertainlyraiseinterestratesforthethirdtimethiscycle.Theirgrowingconfidencemostlystemsfromthenationalpaypicture.Sincelastspring,?nominal?basewagesforfull-timeworkershave?risen?atarateofnearly?3%yearonyear.Sohaveservices-producer?prices,aleading?indicator?forbroaderservices?inflation,whichissensitivetowagegrowth.PandaForeignMagazineIntensiveReading:RespectforOriginality,PiracyMustBe