2025年全球人工智能网络超级周期：由技术升级供应短缺驱动报告（英文版）.pptxVIP

GlobalAlnetworkingsupercycledrivenbytechupgrade/supplyshortage

AccumulatemarketleadersInnoLight,YOFC,TFCandTS

WebeievetheglobalAlnetworkingsupercyclewillcontinuein2026F,andevenextend

into2027F,drivenbymultipletechnologyupgraderoadmaps(i.e.SiliconPhotonics

[SiPh],Co-packageoptics[CPO],OpticalCircuitSwitch[OCS],ActiveElectronicCable

[AEC],HollowCoreFiber[HCF])andsupplyshortage(i.e.opticallaserchip/material).

Weestimate800G/1.6Ttransceivershipmentswillgrowfrom20mn/2.5mnunitsin

2025Fto43mn/20mnunitsin2026F,withSiPhtransceiversgaining50~70%market

share,andexpectInnoLight(300308CH,Buy,oursectortoppick)tocontinueto

dominatethehigh-endmarket.Owingtolikelymoreaggressivebundlingsalesstrategy

fromgobalAlleaders,CPOmigrationshouldacceleratefrom2026(fromalowbase),

andwethinkTFC(300394CH,Buy)andTS(300570CH,Buy)willlikelybekey

beneficiariesintheglobalCPOvaluechain.WeupgradeYOFC(6869HK)toBuy

fromNeutralasthecompanysAIDCbusinessenjoysbuoyantdemandwhilethe

telecommarketstabilizes.

KeythemesandanalysisinthisAnchorReportinclude:

·DetaileddiscussiononglobalhyperscaleAlplayersnetworkingroadmapsfor

scale-upandscale-outnetworks,includingoptics,copperandnetworkingswitches

·Demand-supplyanalysisonkeysegments,includingopticaltransceiversandCPO

·UpgradeYOFCtoBuyandupdatefinancialsforInnoLight,TFC,andTS.

SeeAppendixA-1foranalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnon-USanalysts.

ANCHORREPORT

MarketsResearch

9January2026

Global

Whattoexpectin2026F(and2027Fonwards)

UpgradeYOFCtoBuy;maintainBuyonInnoLight,TFC,andShenzhenTS

Alnetworking:soliddemandthrough2026-2027Fandacceleratedtechmigrationto

underpindominantplayersgrowth

WebelievetheAlinfrainvestmentupcyclefromglobalhyperscaleAlcloudcompanieswillcontinuein2026F-27F,ledbyth