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澳大利亚：揭示劳动力市场的韧性-2026.pdfVIP

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澳大利亚：揭示劳动力市场的韧性-2026.pdf

    Australia:Unpacking

    LaborMarketResilience

    MonicaPetrescu,JohnSpray,NiWang,andYuanyanSophiaZhang

    SIP/2026/011

    IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffas

    backgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswith

    membercountries.Itisbasedontheinformationavailableat

    thetimeitwascompletedonJanuary21,2026.Thispaperis

    alsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo26/39.

    2026

    FEB

    ©2026InternationalMonetaryFundSIP/2026/011

    IMFSelectedIssuesPaper

    AsiaandPacificDepartment

    Australia:UnpackingLaborMarketResilience

    PreparedbyMonicaPetrescu,JohnSpray,NiWang,andYuanyanSophiaZhang*

    AuthorizedfordistributionbyLaminLeigh

    February2026

    IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodic

    consultationswithmembercountries.Itisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwas

    completedonJanuary21,2026.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo26/39.

    ABSTRACT:Australia’slabormarkethasremainedresilientdespiteslowergrowth,withstrongemployment

    gainsandlowunemploymentbutlimitedwagepressure.Thispaperarguesthatrecentdynamicsreflectboth

    cyclicalandstructuralforces.First,headlineindicatorssuchasvacanciesandunemploymentmayoverstate

    cyclicaltightness,partlyduetosectoralshiftslikehealthcareexpansion.Second,rapidlaborsupplygrowth

    reflectsstructuraltrendsandcyclicalresponsestohighlivingcostsandinterestrates,boostingparticipation,

    hours,andmultiplejobholding.Third,stronglaborsupply,alongsidesectorallabordemandhascontained

    wagepressureatlowlev

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