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美联储-Kalshi与宏观市场的崛起-2026.pdfVIP

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美联储-Kalshi与宏观市场的崛起-2026.pdf

    KalshiandtheRiseofMacroMarkets

    AnthonyM.Diercks∗JaredDeanKatz†

    FederalReserveBoardNorthwesternUniversity

    JonathanH.Wright‡

    JohnsHopkinsUniversityandNationalBureauofEconomicResearch

    February12,2026

    Abstract

    Predictionmarketsofferanewmarket-basedapproachtomeasuringmacroeconomic

    expectationsinreal-time.Weevaluatetheaccuracyofpredictionmarket-impliedfore-

    castsfromKalshi,thelargestfederallyregulatedpredictionmarketoverseenbythe

    CFTC.WecompareKalshiwithmoretraditionalsurveyandmarket-impliedfore-

    casts,examinehowexpectationsrespondtomacroeconomicandfinancialnews,and

    howpolicysignalsareinterpretedbymarketparticipants.Ourresultssuggestthat

    Kalshimarketsprovideahigh-frequency,continuouslyupdated,distributionallyrich

    benchmarkthatisvaluabletobothresearchersandpo

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