KROLL-经济学洞察：量化全球石油市场的主要风险和机遇 Economic Insights Oil Markets In Focus Quantifying the key risks and opportunities in global oil markets 2026.docxVIP

EconomicInsights:OilMarketsInFocus

Quantifyingthekeyrisksand

opportunitiesinglobaloilmarkets

20February2026

KeyFindings

Globaloilmarketsenter2026insurplus—yetgeopoliticalshocksdominatetheriskoutlook.

?

?Globaloilsupplyenters2026inasurplus;pricesfellbyalmost20%

in2025asOPEC+unwoundvoluntarycutsalongsiderobustnon-OPEC+supply.

?However,oilpricesremainvolatile,withaveragepricesinJanuary

Toassesstheeffectsofkeydevelopmentsintheglobaloilmarket,wehavemodelledtwohigh-impactscenariosusingKGEM(Kroll’s

geo-economicmo