欧盟的能源转型：投资影响和碳定价收入回收的作用.pdfVIP

TheEU’sEnergyTransition:

InvestmentImpactandRole

ofCarbonPricingRevenue

Recycling

BenjaminCarton,GeoffroyDolphin,RomainDuval,AndrewHodge,Amit

Kara,SimonVoigts,SebastianWende

WP/26/46

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2026

MAR

©2026InternationalMonetaryFundWP/26/46

IMFWorkingPaper

EuropeanDepartmentandResearchDepartment

TheEU’sEnergyTransition:InvestmentImpactandRoleofCarbonPricingRevenueRecycling

PreparedbyBenjaminCarton,GeoffroyDolphin,RomainDuval,AndrewHodge,AmitKara,SimonVoigts,

SebastianWende

AuthorizedfordistributionbyKristinaKostialandRafaelPortillo

March2026

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:TheEUhasambitiousgoalsforclimateandenergysecurity.Itstargetsandpoliciesmayhave

largemacroeconomicimplications,butinvestmentimpactsareparticularlyuncertain.Detailedbottom-up

approachesbasedonsectoralcalculationspointtoinvestmentincreasesof2to3percentofGDPannually,

while“topdown”generalequilibriummodelsoftenyieldnegligibleaggregateinvestmenteffects.Further,the