犯罪的长期影响：从个人关注到宏观经济后果.pdfVIP

TheLong-termEffectsof

Crime:FromIndividual

Concernsto

Macroeconomic

Consequences

UrsulaBerresheim,RafaelMachadoParenteandSamuel

Pienknagura

WP/26/39

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2026

MAR

©2026InternationalMonetaryFundWP/26/38

IMFWorkingPaper

ResearchDepartment

TheLong-termEffectsofCrime:FromIndividualConcernstoMacroeconomicConsequences

PreparedbyUrsulaBerresheim,RafaelMachadoParente,andSamuelPienknagura

AuthorizedfordistributionbyFlorenceJaumotte

March2026

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Crimeshocksarefrequentanddisruptive,oftenheighteningpublicconcernsaboutviolenceand

personalsafety.Yetlittleisknownabouttheirpotentiallong-termeconomicimplications.Thispaperstudies

howhistoricalexposuretocrimeshapescurrentperceptionsofcrime,andhowtheseindividualperceptionsin

turnaffectthemacroeconomicimpactsofnewcrimeshocks.Usingcross-countrysurveydatamatchedwith

historicalcrimerecords,wefindthatindividualshistoricallyexposedtohigh-crimeyearsaremorelikelyto

prioritizefightingcrimeoverothersocietalgoals,suchasmaintainingastableeconomy.This