2025年经济展望：全气缸点火 2025 Economic Outlook Firing on All Cylinders.pdfVIP

2025EconomicOutlook:

FiringonAllCylinders

December2024

ByTorstenSløk

ApolloChiefEconomist

KEYTAKEAWAYS

TheoutlookfortheUSeconomyremainsstrongwithno•TheUSisexperiencingasurgeincorporateandresearch

signsofamajorslowdowngoinginto2025.WecontinuetospendingonthebackoftheArtificialIntelligence(AI)

seeinterestratesstayinghigherforlongeronarelativerevolution—adynamicnotseeninotherdeveloping

basis,regardlessoftheFederalReserve’songoingmonetarynationsorevenChina.This“AIboom”isstructural,

easingcampaign.widespreadandpervasive,rangingfrominvestments

bytechgiantsinthedevelopmentofAIitselftothe

Itistooearlytoassesstheimpactofpotentialnewpolicies

infrastructuresupportingit,fromsemiconductordesign

followingDonaldTrump’selectionasUSpresident.That

andmanufacturingtothebuildingofdatacenters,

said,ifimplemented,hiskeypolicyobjectives—lowertaxes,

increasedenergygenerationneeds,andfurther

highertariffs,andreducedimmigration—couldincrease

automationofsupplychains.

rates,boostassetprices,driveinflation,andstrengthen

thedollar.•TheUSwasuniqueonitswayoutoftheCovidpandemic