236-宏观经济学失业.ppt

* 工资刚性的原因 1. 最低工资法 2. 工会 3. 效率工资 失业的代价 * 需求不足失业意味着失业率与经济增长率存在反向关系。 美国经济学家阿瑟、奥肯（Arthur Okun）对美国经验数据进行分析，发现经济增长率与失业率变动之间存在显著联系。 周期性失业：经济增长与失业 * 失业率变动 = -1/2 X（GDP增长率 - 3%） GDP增长率为3%时失业率不变。增长率高于3%时，失业率下降幅度等于增长率超过3%部分的一半；增长率低于3%时，失业率上升幅度等于增长率不足3%部分的一半。 例如经济增长率为5%时，失业率会下降1个百分点 [（5%-3%）/ 2 ]。 失业率与增长率之间这一数量关系，被称为奥肯定律（Okun’s Law）。 失业的代价：奥肯定理 失业的代价 失业的最大代价是产出的损失：奥肯定律。 对失业代价的承担是非常不平衡的。失业具有重大的分配后果，衰退的损失主要由失业者承担。失业不只是经济问题，更是社会、政治问题。 * 本章总结 1. 自然失业率 是稳定状态的失业率或长期平均的失业率 取决于离职率和就职率 2. 摩擦失业 劳动力出于主观意愿寻找工作需要时间而引起的失业. 失业保险可能导致摩擦失业增加 * 本章总结 3. 结构性失业 工资刚性导致，工资水平高于均衡水平 原因: 最低工资, 工会, 效率工资 4. 周期性失业 经济周期与失业 奥肯定律 * Except for the material on economic growth (Chapters 7 and 8), this chapter completes our study of the economy’s behavior in the long run, when prices generally are flexible and markets clear. * Unemployment is a critical issue in macroeconomics. The PowerPoint presentation of chapter 1 included some data showing that unemployment is statistically associated with many other social problems. Unemployment especially hurts those who are unemployed, but it affects the rest of us, as well. When unemployment is high, those of us who remain employed are likely to experience slower wage increases, a greater sense of economic uncertainty, and a greater likelihood of falling victim to crime (crime rates are correlated with unemployment). Also, the new case study on pp.173-174 shows a significant statistical correlation between a country’s unemployment rate and the happiness of its citizens - including those that are employed. Unemployment represents wasted resources: the higher the unemployment rate, the less labor is involved in the production of goods and services, implying a lower level of output and income in the economy. If you want to solve a problem, you need to first understand its causes. The causes of unemployment can be broken down into long-run and short-run. This chapter focuses on the long-run, particularly the causes of the so-called “natural