气候变迁与全球暖化的科学了解.pptVIP

未來氣候變遷推估的科學信賴度 全球優於區域 全球與大部分地區平均氣溫明顯上升 海水溫度明顯上升 海面明顯上升 雨量變化信賴度較低，尤其是小區域 劇烈天氣與極端氣候發生頻率的變化，信賴度低 台灣：氣溫、海溫、海面上升的信賴度較高，其他不確定 氣候模式仍不夠完善 是「情境推估」！不是「預測」！ 風險評估的重要資訊 * * * FIGURE SPM-4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings. Decadal averages of observations are shown for the period 1906–2005 (black line) plotted against the centre of the decade and relative to the corresponding average for 1901–1950. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50%. Blue shaded bands