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股票_技術分析_精短線技術.pdf
Trading the GARTLEY 22 2
Sometimes old trading ideas are the best ideas —
if you can quantify the m wit h modern analysis and
testing procedures . Here , a classic chart patter n
is defined mathematically and tested to see if it can
produce profits .
BY AARO N BEHLE AN D MAR K CONWAY
s an increasingly challenging market has weeded peak-to-trough or trough-to-peak) as a certain percentage of a
out traders over the past few years, many sur- preceding price swing . Pesavento required these percentages
vivors in search of an edge are revisiting the to be Fibonacci ratios : 0.618, 0.786, 1.00, 1.27 and 1.618.
works of the original technical analysis masters, The problem is that if you disregard those patterns whose
including Richard Schabacker, J.M. Hurst , W.D. Gann and price swings are not proportional using precise Fibonacci
Harold M. Gartley. ratios, the Gartley 222 pattern is quite rare . Using a tolerance
Gartley wrote Profits in the Stock Market in 1935, and what percentage (T%) that expands the range of acceptable price-
makes the book striking is not that it shows how much techni- swing ratios produces more pattern examples and , thus , more
cal analysis has advanced since then, but rather, how little it trade opportunities . For example, if T% = 10 percent, seg
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