中国城市化发展、能源消费与碳排放的关系研究.docVIP

  中国城市化发展、能源消费与碳排放的关系 研究# 胡宗义，刘亦文* 5 10 15 20 25 30 （湖南大学金融与统计学院，长沙 410079） 摘要：本文选取了 1995 年至 2007 年我国 29 个省市面板数据，通过格兰杰因果检验，发现 能源消费和碳排放均为城市化水平的 granger 原因。建立以城市化水平为被解释变量，能源 消费和碳排放作为解释变量的模型。通过协方差分析检验和 Haus man 检验的分析结果，确 定研究模型的形式为固定影响变截距模型。最后，通过对拟合模型的结果分析，我们得到如 下结论：高能耗、高排放、粗放式经济发展方式不利于城市化水平的提高。同时，各省市的 城市化发展水平也存在差异。因此，各省市应在城市化工业化进程中推进产业结构和能源消 费结构调整使其朝着更有利于节能环保的方向演进，节能减排政策的调整重点应该放在能源 强度和能源消费碳强度上。 关键词：数量经济学；城市化；能源消费；碳排放 中图分类号：F064.1 Research on relationship between Chinese urbanization process, energy consumption and Carbon Emission Hu Zongyi, Liu Yiwen (Colleage of Finance and Statistics, Hunan University, Changsha, 410079) Abstract: This paper selected 29 provincial panel data from 1995 to 2007, by the use of Granger causality test, and found both energy consumption and carbon emission are the Granger causes of urbanization level. Then set up a model, whose explain variables are energy consumption and carbon emission and explain variable is urbanization level. By means of covariance analysis test and the results of Hausman Test, we have determined the form of research model is the model of fixed-effects and variational intercept. Finally, through the results analysis of fitting models, we have got the conclusions as follows: high energy consumption, high exhaustion and extensive economic growth are bad for the improvement of urbanization level. Meanwhile, there are differences between the urbanization level of each provinces as well. Therefore, in order to make it go forward on the way of energy conservation and environmental protection, each provinces should adjust industrial structure and energy consumption structure. Moreover, the key point of policy adjustment of energy conservation and environmental protection should be put on the intension of energy and the carbon intension of energy consumption. Key words: Urbanization;Energy Consumption;Carbon Emission 35 0 引言 伴随着社会经济的发展，农村人口转化为非农业人人口，人口向城镇集聚，农村地区转 化为城镇地区，城镇的数量不断增加，这一现象被成为城市化。专业地定义城市化也就是人 口和产业活动在空间上的集聚，乡村地