高盛GS2011年中国投资策略深度研究报告中英文双语12.pdf

October 27, 2010 China: Portfolio Strategy 2011 outlook: A bastion of growth Firmly on track, fundamental earnings are solid CHINA RESEARCH TEAM We target 16,500 and 4,300 for the HSCEI and CSI300 by end-2011E, representing 21% and 24% upside potential from current levels. We forecast 17% and 19% offshore/onshore 2011E earnings growth, and see Helen Zhu earnings growth as the key contributor to returns. The domestic macro +852-2978-0048 helen.zhu@ environment is robust – fiscal policies are supportive and monetary Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. policies are more selective but still fairly accommodative. Despite likely weak external demand, we believe China will gradually decouple by Timothy Moe, CFA stimulating domestic growth – both in consumption and investment. +852-2978-1328 timothy.moe@ Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Multiples – expect more reversal of 1H10 moves Christopher Eoyang We believe a mild further multiple expansion for MSCI China (current +81(3)6437-9888 christopher.eoyang@ Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 13X to 14X 1-yr fwd) and CSI300 (current 16X to18X 1-yr fwd) are easily achievable. We see the most room for multiple recovery for sectors Ben Bei with most contraction in 1H10 – cyclicals (to mid-cy