养老保险的公共财政投入对居民储蓄率影响的实证研究.pdfVIP

签名：周 盈 导师签名： 李绍光 日期： 2007-5-28 中文摘要 1978年以来，随着我国国民经济的飞速发展，我国的居民储蓄也出现高速 增长的态势。这对我国经济的进一步增长有着有利的一面，但也会带来一定程 度的负面影响。所以国家相继出台了一系列积极的财政和货币政策，以刺激国 内消费和投资需求，分流储蓄，但是居民储蓄依然持续增加。为此，我国有很 多学者建立了许多的储蓄模型来分析各因素对居民储蓄的影响程度，但分析结 论的差异很大。 论文首先综述国内外关于社会保障影响居民消费和储蓄行为的现有文献， 给出社会保障影响居民消费和储蓄行为的理论分析框架和作用机制;然后，设定 理论分析模型，将养老金的公共财政投入引入居民的储蓄决策模型，并通过计 算机动态模拟技术模拟典型消费者在引入养老社会保障下的消费和储蓄行为， 将理论模型的含义表达出来;随后，选取截面数据和时间序列数据，利用现代计 量经济学方法实证分析养老金的公共财政投入对中国城乡居民储蓄行为的影响; 同时，论文结合理论分析和实证研究的结果进一步思考中国社会保障制度的建 设和完善;最后，阐述所得出的主要研究结论，并提出相关政策建议。 关键词：养老保险；公共财政；居民储蓄率 3 Abstract Since 1978, with the rapid development of the national economy, theres a strong growing tendency of Chinese deposit saving, which brings both positive and negative effects on Chinese economy. Therefore, the government has issued a series of positive financial and monetary policies to stimulate the need of consumption, investment and the reposition of redundant personnel save. However, theres still a steady increase in deposit saving. Thus, the deposit saving models are established to analyze the factors influencing deposit saving, which results in great disparity. This paper puts forward some different opinions based on previous research achievements by first analyzing the influencing factors on deposit saving and exploring the possible defects of the present saving models. And it establishes a deposit saving model for urban and suburban dwellers by econometrical methods. Considering the apparent differences between the cities and countries, it establishes models from aspects of city dwellers. By the analyzes of the above two regressive results, the follow