我国适度国债规模的研究.pdfVIP

要 国债发行对经济既有积极作用，又有负面影响，适度的国债规模将会对经济 运行起到最大的积极作用。当前我国还处在抵御世界金融危机的浪潮中，实行积 极的财政政策使得我国国债规模迅速膨胀而增加财政收入却受限制，因此对我国 适度国债规模 行研究是很有必要的。所谓适度国债规模，即实现我国经济保持 平稳快速增长的同时，国债发行所起到的正净效应最大时的国债规模。本文考察 了1981—2008 年的经验数据，运用国际通行的合理指标对比我国现实指标 行实 证分析，分别考察了国民经济应债能力的赤字率、国债负担率和居民应债能力以 及国家财政的偿债能力的国债依存度、国债偿债率。得出我国国民经济应债能力 较宽松，而国家财政偿债能力不容乐观的结论，这看似是对我国国债适度规模判 断的一个悖论。分析了我国国债适度规模悖论的原因，并对我国综合负债能力 行了深入探讨，结合我国目前的宏观经济环境和经济政策提出了我国适度国债规 模发展的政策建议。 关键词：国债 适度国债规模 财政政策 1 Abstract Issuance of treasury bonds has both positive effects on the economy, another negative impact, moderate scale of government bonds will the economy play an active role in the largest. At present China is still in resisting the tide of the global financial crisis, to implement a proactive fiscal policy makes the rapid expansion of the size of Chinas national debt and increasing financial revenue is limited, so the scale of our study a moderate national debt is necessary. The so-called moderate debts, namely, the achievement of Chinas economy maintained steady and rapid growth, the issuance of treasury bonds by the net effect is played when the national debt the size of the largest. This paper examines the 1981-2008 years of empirical data, using internationally accepted indicators of reasonable conduct comparative empirical analysis of Chinas real targets were to be debt capacity study of the national economy the deficit rate, bond rate, and residents should take the burden of debt capacity and solvency of the state finance dependence on the ability of the bond debt, bond debt service ratio. Come to our national economy should be more lenient debt capacity, while the states financial solvency can not be optimistic conclusion, which appears to be a moderate size of our national debt judge a paradox. Analyzes the paradox of