人民币升值对浙江省农产品出口贸易的影响分析毕业论文.doc

摘 要 浙江的农业发展处于全国先进水平，其农产品贸易发展迅速，农产品贸易是我省进出口贸易的重要组成部分。汇率作为一种重要的经济杠杆，是影响一个国家和地区对外贸易发展的重要因素之一。人民币汇率的波动势必会对浙江省农产品贸易产生一定的影响。通过理论分析，相关分析以及实证分析等研究方法，从定性和定量的角度，具体分析了人民币实际有效汇率上升对浙江省农产品出口贸易的影响。浙江省作为我国农产品出口大省，面对人民币升值，应积极在各个方面努力提高全省农产品自身的竞争力，使浙江省农产品出口贸易保持持续、稳定的发展。 关键词： ABSTRACT In this Zhejiang province is one of the provinces which have the fastest agriculture developing speed in china. The trade of agricultural products developed so fast that it has been a great part of trade in Zhejiang. Exchange rate as an important economic lever is one important factor of which impact on a national and regional development of foreign trade. The exchange rate could be defiantly affective to the agricultural trade. In this paper,through theoretical analysis, correlation analysis and empirical analysis, a detailed analysis between the REER of RMB and exports of agricultural products trade in Zhejiang Province. Therefore, for the appreciation of RMB. Zhejiang province should be active in all aspects of efforts to improve the competitiveness of the agricultural products, so that the export of agricultural products in Zhejiang Province will maintain sustained and steady development in the future． Key Words : revaluation of RMB, Zhejiang province, agricultural export trade, anti—J-curve effect 目 录 摘要………………………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ 一、……………………………………………………1 （一）出口规模……………………………………………………………………2 （二）出口种类……………………………………………………………………2 （三）出口市场……………………………………………………………………3 二、近年人民币汇率调整情况……………………………………………………………3 三、人民币升值对农产品出口贸易影响的定性分析………………………………… 4 （一）人民币升值对农产品出口的消极影响……………………………………5 1.出口竞争力减弱………………………………………………………5 2.出口量减少……………………………………………………………5 （二）人民币升值对农产品出口的积极影响……………………………………5 四、实证分析…………………………………………………………………………… 6 （一）模型的选取…………………………………………………………………6 1.建立模型……………………………………………………………… 7 2.样本数据选取及来源………………………………………………… 7 （二）……………………………………………………………7 1.平稳性检验……………………………………………………………8