货币发行量与股价波动相关性分析毕业论文.doc

摘 要 随着股票市场的快速发展，许多国家的金融体系都得到了很大的变化。货币政策对股票价格的影响，要弄清这个关键性的问题，必须先要弄清楚货币政策影响股票价格的机制机理。在中国的经济和政策环境中，货币政策是否能够有效地影响股票的价格，这也是一个让人关心的话题。本文利用2006年1月到2010年12月的经济金融月度数据，主要应用动态式计量检验方法对M0 M1与M2及其变化与股票价格的关系进行理论分析和实证检验，为投资者和决策者提供了有效的决策依据。我国的货币政策应密切关注股市价格波动因素的影响，将其纳入必要的监管范围，减少股市价格波动对货币政策有效性的冲击。 关键词： ABSTRACT Along with Stock market's fast development, many country's financial systems obtained the very big change. But the monetary policy to stock price's influence, needs to clarify this crucial question, must the first clarifying monetary policy influence stock price machine-made mechanism. In China's economy and policy environment, monetary policy whether can affect the stock effectively the price, this is also one topic which lets the human care. This article uses in January, 2006 to December，2010 economical financial monthly data, main application dynamic formula measurement inspection procedure to M0 M1 and M2 and the change and stock price's relations carry on the theoretical analysis and the real diagnosis examination, has provided the effective policy-making basis for the investor and the policy-maker. Our country's monetary policy should pay attention to the stock market price fluctuations factor closely the influence, integrates the essential supervision scope it, reduces the stock market price fluctuations to the monetary policy valid impact. Key words: Price fluctuations, Money supply, Stock market, Granger causal relation 目 录 摘要………………………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ ……………………………………………………………………………………… 1 文献回顾……………………………………………………………………………… 2 二、………………………………………… 3 （）…………… 5 （三）Granger因果关系…………………………………………………………………… 6 三、结论分析及政策建议 ……………………………………………………………………6 （一）…………………………………………………………………………… 7 （二） …………………………………………………………………………… 10参考文献 ……………………………………………………………………………………12 致谢 …………………………………………………………………………………………14 引 言 股票市场是国民经济的晴雨表，是货币政策的重要传导媒介之一。我国股票市场虽然只有短短两十几年的发展时间，但其发展速度和规模却是惊人的。 截至2010年底，我国境内上市公司总数为2063家，比1