澳门元汇率制度改革研究.pdf

摘要 近年澳门经济受博彩业开放所影响突飞猛进，澳门与国内之间的经济活动日渐 加速, 与此同时国内经济因长期贸易顺差引发人民币升值压力，为减低两地金融系 统与汇率差异造成障碍和冲击，澳门与国内汇率联系有着显著的需求。要达至货币 汇率接轨的目的,澳门必须在金融体系上进行改革。 本文透过对澳门现行汇率制度及其合理性分析，透过购买力平价，利率平价及 MF 模型分析，指出澳门汇率制度的现实限制。应用 MF 模型分析澳门的汇率制度与 货币政策、财政政策的关系是否如 MF 模型所述的同样有效。指出在全球化程度极 高的今天，固定汇率制度虽然因为汇率缺乏弹性而面临非常大的潜在风险与外汇干 预成本，使一国长远发展受到很大的限制，但在短期稳定而言，它具有一定的优 势，对于微型经济体系的国家或地区实施固定汇率制是最佳的选择。 透过浮动汇率制度的可行性, 澳门元与人民币挂钩的利弊, 澳门元与人民币 一体化的利弊等分析, 以及考虑人民币未来的发展趋势, 提出澳门元最佳的汇率制 度选择，并对最佳汇率制度安排迈向进程的方法提出建议。 关键词: 汇率制度；货币一体化 澳门金融 I ABSTRACT Gambling Industry in Macau has been expanded rapidly since it was opened up for competition recently. Economic activities between Macau and China is accelerating gradually. At the same instance, China is facing great pressure on revaluating RMB due to her persistently strong trade surplus. In order to minimize obstacles and impacts caused by differences in financial system and exchange rate between the two domains, seeking for means to Linking foreign exchange system is an obvious pursuit for Macau. In order to integrate seamlessly to a linked foreign exchange system, Macau must reform existing financial structure and be compatible in all respects. Through sensitive studies on the present foreign exchange system in Macau: using purchasing power parity(PPP), interest rate parity(IRP) and Mundell-Fleming Model(MF) to deduce existing shortcomings of the system. MF model is used to relate foreign exchange system and monetary policy in Macau and whether they are effective as shown. In the world of globalization as today, fixed exchange rate leads to costs on being inflexible, facing possible risks and foreign exchange in