中国货币政策调控商品住宅价格研究.pdf

摘 要 近年来，全国商品住宅价格涨幅虽然有所回落，但总体仍然呈现上涨的趋势，并且局 部地区的商品住宅价格依然处于高位运行。自 2001 年开始，中央银行出台了一系列调控 措施以求稳定商品住宅价格，虽然取得了一定的成效，但总体调控效果并不尽如人意。 本文结合中国商品住宅业迅速发展的背景，按“全国——深圳市”的顺序分析货币政 策调控商品住宅价格的效果。首先从全国来看，通过分阶段考察货币政策的调控效果发现， 2005-2006 年的调控效果较为明显，但在各地区的调控效果不一；而 2001-2004 年与 2007 年至今的调控效果则不太理想；即使如此，货币政策抑制商品住宅价格上涨的作用却在逐 渐显现。然后，运用 1999-2007 年相关数据实证检验货币政策调控深圳市商品住宅价格的 效果，得出货币政策可以通过调节货币供应量与利率来调控商品住宅价格，但短期内作用 较微弱，调控能力有限；相比而言，土地政策与收入政策的调控效果则较为显著。由此得 出结论：货币政策在一定程度上能够调控商品住宅价格，但调控能力有限，并且在各地区 的调控效果不一；同时，随着时间的推移，货币政策的调控效果在逐步增强。最后，本文 认为要改善货币政策的调控效果就必须进一步明确和细化调控目标、加强货币政策的统一 性与灵活性并实施缩短货币政策调控时滞的措施等。 关键词：货币政策；商品住宅价格；货币供应量；利率 I Abstract In recent years, the markup of commercial housing price fell a little, but the overall trend still showed up, and in some areas, commercial housing price remained high. Since 2001, The People’s Bank of China has issued a series of measures to stabilize commercial housing price, despite a certain degree of effectiveness, but the overall effect of regulation is not satisfactory. This paper analyzes the effect of the monetary policy regulation on commercial housing price, according to the order of Country-Shenzhen City. First, in the sight of the whole country, through the study on the regulating effect of the monetary policy by stages, it reveals the obvious effect in 2005-2006, but the effect varies with the regions; in 2001-2004 and 2007, the impact of regulation is not ideal; Even so, the monetary policy still plays the role of restraining commercial housing price from jack-up and its impact gradually appears. Then, using the data of late 9 years from 1999 to 2007, the effect of the monetary policy regulation on commercial housing price in Shenzhen City can be tested by empirical analysis. It indicates that the monetary policy