黄河河龙区间年输沙量的仿真模拟.pdfVIP

黄河河龙区间年输沙量的仿真模拟 李 敏 王富贵 （黄河上中游管理局，陕西 西安 710021） 摘要：准确地模拟黄河输沙量的变化过程，将为研究黄河泥沙变化的原因和建立黄河泥沙预 测模型提供必要的技术基础。黄河泥沙主要来源于河口镇至龙门区间，为精细模拟该区间输 沙量的变化，进一步划分了亚区，选择了 23 个降雨因子和一个水土保持治理因子，采用回 归分析方法，筛选出河口镇至吴堡区间 7—8 月降雨量、水土保持治理度、陕西北最大三日 降雨量等 3 个解释因子。利用这 3 个因子解释和仿真模拟了 1954—2005 年河龙区间年输沙 量的年际波动变化与长期递减变化 77%以上的变化过程，相关系数为 0.886，显著性水平达 到 0.01。说明拟定的技术路线可行，确定的解释变量合理，采用的计算数据客观。 关键词：河龙区间；输沙量；仿真模拟；黄河 Simulation of The Annual Sediment Discharge in Helong Interval of the Yellow River Li Min,Wang Fugui （Administration of the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River,Xi’an,710021） Abstract: Accurate simulation of the process of change for the Yellow River sediment discharge, will provide the necessary technical foundation to study the reasons for the change of the Yellow River sediment and establishment sediment prediction model of the Yellow River. Yellow River sediment comes mainly from the Hekouzhen to the Longmen Section. For fine simulation of sediment discharge changes, further divided into sub-regions, selected 23 rainfall factors and a soil and water conservation factor, using regression analysis method, filtering out three factors, they are “the Hekouzhen to the Wubao interval July-August rainfall”, “improvement degree of soil and water conservation” and “North Shaanxi maximum three-day rainfall”. these three factors interpretate and simulate more than 77% of the variation in the process of interannual fluctuations change and long-term decreasing of annual sediment discharge from 1954 to 2005 in the Helong interval, the correlation coefficient is 0.886, significant levels reached 0.01. The result shows that the technical course is feasible, the explanatory variables are reasonable, the calculation data are objective. Keywords: Helong interval; Sediment discharge; simulation; Yellow River