不同运作模式的供应链系统与动力学行为仿真研究.doc

不同运作模式的供应链系统动力学行为仿真研究 陈国华1,2，1，1，张淑慧1 (1.重庆大学机械学院 先进制造技术研究所，重庆，400044； 2.襄樊学院 机械与汽车工程学院，湖北 襄樊，414000 ) 摘要：为研究三种模式的供应链对交货率影响的系统行为,将系统动力学方法引入到供应链系统行为研究中。根据三种模式供应链的特点,对它们分别建立了系统动力学模型，然后对它们在相同参数、市场扰动以及政策改变等情况下的仿真分析。结果表明：推式供应链稳定性最差，只有通过改变订货周期才可以提高交货率；拉式供应链对市场的响应表现在整条供应链上最为敏感，既可以通过改变订货周期也可以改变目标库存的方式来提高交货率；推拉结合式供应链的优势表现在对最终用户的交货率上，要改变整条供应链的交货率只有通过改变供应商的订货周期。 关键词：推式；拉式；推拉结合式；供应链；系统动力学；交货率；仿真 中图分类号：N945.12；N945.17 The Simulation of Systems Dynamics Behavior of Supply Chain With Various Operational Modes Chen Guo-hua1,2，Zhang Gen-bao1，Pang Ji-hong1，Zhang Shu-hui1 (1.Inst.of Advanced Manufacture Tech.; Sch.of Mechanical Eng.; Chongqing Univ.; Chongqing 400044; China;2.Dept. of mechanical Eng., Xiangfan University,Hubei, Xiangfan,441000) Abstract: To study the system behavior of the influence on delivery ratio exerted by the supply chain with three modes, systems dynamics (SD) is introduced into the analysis of the supply chain’s behaviors. Three SD models were set up by various supply chains’ characteristics, and then the simulation of them was run under the circumstances of the same parameters, the disturbances of market and the policy shift, respectively. The result indicates: Push-supply chain is the most unstable, and only through adjusting order cycle time, its delivery ratio can be increased. For pull-supply chain, its response to market is the most sensitive in the whole supply chain, and its delivery ratio’s increase is not only through adjusting order cycle time,but also through changing target inventory. The strong point of Push pull-supply chain, is its stable and very high delivery ratio to the last customers, and only through adjusting the suppliers’ order cycle time, its delivery ratio can be increased. Key words: Push; Pull; Push pull; Supply chain; Systems dynamics; Delivery ratio; Simulation 0 引言 一般来说，按照供应链的驱动模式，可以将供应链划分为推式供应链、拉式供应链和推拉结合式供应链。对于各种模式供应链的特点，一些文献进行了详细的阐述[1-3]。但透过这些文献不难发现，他们的研究有两个特点：一是定性，二是静态。供应链是一个复杂的动态平衡系统，运用静态的分析方法并不能完全揭示各种模式深层次的运行规律，而定性的分析