2014年外文文献.docVIP

Historical Oil Shocks James D. Hamilton Department of Economics University of California, San Diego December 22, 2010 ABSTRACT: This paper surveys the history of the oil industry with a particular focus on the events associated with significant changes in the price of oil. Although oil was used much differently and was substantially less important economically in the nineteenth century than it is today, there are interesting parallels between events in that era and more recent developments. Key post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iran-Iraq War initiated in 1980, the first Persian Gulf War in 1990-91, and the oil price spike of 2007-2008. Other more minor disturbances are also discussed, as are the economic downturns that followed each of the major postwar oil shocks. 1. The first of oil shock Illuminants, lubricants, and solvents in the 1850s were obtained from a variety of sources, such as oil from lard or whale, alcohol from agricultural products, and turpentine from wood. Several commercial enterprises produced petroleum or gas from treatment of coal, asphalt, coal-tars, and even shale. But a new era began when Edwin Drake successfully produced commercially usable quantities of crude oil from a 69-foot well in Pennsylvania in 1859. With about 40 gallons in a barrel, the upper range quoted corresponds to $80 per barrel of crude oil, or $1,900/barrel in 2009 dollars. Given the expensive process of making oil from coal and the small volumes in which an individual household consumed the product, obtaining oil by drilling into the earth appeared to be a bargain: Drake’s discovery broke the market. The fact that the precious oil could be obtained in apparently inexhaustible quantities by drilling wells in the rocky crust of the earth, was a great surprise. The first product of the Drake well was sold at 50 cents a gallon, and the price for oil is generally