农村劳动力转移影响因素的分析_29个省市经验数据_黄国华.pdfVIP

2010 16 1 POPULAT ION DEVELOPM ENT Vol. 16 No. 1 2010 : * 29 黄国华 ( , 201306) : 在分析和评价传统理论和已有文献的基础上, 突破单 一的城乡收入差距 响农村劳动力转移的传统 思维, 构建出农村劳动力转移不仅受迁移地非农收入的实际效用因素的 响, 受迁移成本变动因素 响的 理论模型根据全国29 个省市 1995- 2006年的面板数据, 经过单位根检验和协整关系检验, 利用回归模 型,估计分析了非农收入的实际效用因素和非农收入成本因素对农村劳动力转移的 响度城乡收入差 距非农产业生产总值比率与农村劳动力转移呈正相关, 城乡消费支出比率城镇失业率分别作为农村劳动 力转移的直接价格成本和就业风险成本与农村劳动力转移呈负相关关系要进一步促进我国农村劳动力向 城镇的合理转移, 必须从两个方面着手: 一是提高非农收入的实际效用, 二是降低非农收入的成本率 : ; ; : F241 : A : 16 4- 1668( 2010) 01- 0002- 09 ImpactFactorsAnalysis aboutRuralLaborM igration: EmpiricalData from 29 Provinces and ities HUANG Guo- hua (SM U Colleg e of A rt and Sc iences, Shang ha i 201306, Ch ina ) Abstract: Based on the theoretical analysis and existing literatures about rural labor m igration, breakthrough the trad itional thinkingw ay of singleU rban- rural income gap affect rural laborm-i gration, the thesis draw the conclusion that not only the Urban- rural income gap affect rural la- borm igration, but also the cost affect rural laborm igration. Morever, accord ing to thew hole coun- trycdata during 1995 to 2006, after un it root test and cointegration test, using regression model, the thesis make a estmi ate about the mi pact of theU rban- rural income gap and the cost on rural la- bor inflow. Estmi ates show that theU rban- rural income gap and theNon- agricultural industries output promote the rural laborm igration, the cost obstruct the rural labor m igration, thus clarify the mi pact degree ofU rban- rural income gap and cost c