汽车产业出口战略转型的竞争力关联效应分析.docVIP

169汽车出口国际比较与竞争力指数影响因素的实证分析 内容提要：我国已连续三年成为世界汽车产销第一大国，然而汽车产业的出口步伐却始终与之脱节，在综合对比有关国家汽车出口的几方面之后发现，我国汽车的出口竞争力远远落后于其他国家。基于此，本文利用1989-2010年相关行业数据，运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验分析了行业内外因素与汽车出口竞争力之间长期稳定的均衡关系，并通过向量自回归模型（VAR）以及脉冲响应函数（IRF）进一步分析了它们之间的动态关系。实证结果表明，在短期，汽车出口竞争力对规模经济和技术进步冲击的响应较为强烈，而外商直接投资（FDI）对汽车出口竞争力的促进作用十分有限；从长期看，劳动生产率对汽车出口竞争力有微弱的负向影响，同时汇率在此方面的影响也并不显著。最后针对以上结论，从战略的视角思考了对策建议。 关键词：汽车出口；协整检验；向量自回归模型；脉冲响应函数；外商直接投资； International Automotive Export Comparison and Empirical Analysis on Competitiveness Indices’ Influence Factors Abstract: We have become the biggest nation of world in automobile production and sales for three consecutive years, yet the pace of automotive export has always been out of touch with that, after a comprehensively comparisons about some aspects of relative country’s automotive exports, we find that our automotive export competitiveness is far behind other countries. Based on this, this paper uses the related industry data from 1989 to 2010, analyzes the co-integration relationships between both internal and external industry factors and automotive export competitiveness, and further analyzes their dynamic relationship through Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model and impulse response function(IRF). Empirical results shows that, in short term the response of automotive export competitiveness to the shock of economies of scale and technological progress is strong, but foreign direct investment (FDI) is very limited in promoting automotive export competitiveness; In long term, labor productivity has a little negative impact on automotive competitiveness, meanwhile exchange rate has unobvious impact on it. At last we consider countermeasures from a strategic perspective according to the above results. Key words: Automotive export; Co-integration test; VAR model; Impulse response function; Foreign direct investment; 一、引言 回首刚刚过去2011年，蝉联全球第一国汽车业仍是强外干%，这个比重在全球主要汽车生产国中处于最低水平甚至不及印度、巴西等国家2010年国共出口整车及各类底盘5667万辆占总产量的汽车强国的重点市场无一不在海外2010年德国汽车出口量约424万辆，占产量的76.29%日本出口量达4万辆韩国全年出口量为