jep.25.1.49文献.pdfVIP

Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 25, Number 1—Winter 2011—Pages 49–70 Over the Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis Frederic S. Mishkin hhe ie i nancial crisis of 2007 to 2009 can be divided into two distinct phases.nancial crisis of 2007 to 2009 can be divided into two distinct phases. TThe ihe i rst and more limited phase from August 2007 to August 2008 stemmedrst and more limited phase from August 2007 to August 2008 stemmed TTffrom losses in one relatively small segment of the U.S. irom losses in one relatively small segment of the U.S. i nancial system—nancial system— nnamely, subprime residential mortgages. Despite this disruption to iamely, subprime residential mortgages. Despite this disruption to i nancial markets,nancial markets, rreal GDP in the United States continued to rise into the second quarter of 2008,eal GDP in the United States continued to rise into the second quarter of 2008, aand forecasters were predicting only a mild recession. For example, the Congres-nd forecasters were predicting only a mild recession. For example, the Congres- ssional Budget Ofiional Budget Ofi ce (2008) released one of its periodic “The Budget and Economicce (2008) released one of its periodic “The Budget and Economic OOutlook: An Update” reports on September 8, 2008. It said: “Accorutlook: An Update” reports on September 8, 2008. It said: “Accordding to CBO’sing to CBO’s uupdated forecast for the rest of 2008 and for 2009, the economy is about halfwaypdated forecast for the rest of 2008 and for 2009, the economy is about halfway tthrough an extended period of very slow growth. . . . Whether or not that period ofhrough an extended period of very slow growth. . . . Whether or not that period of sslow growth will ultimately be designated a recession is still uncertain. However, thelow growth will ultimately be designated a recession is still uncertain. However, t