BetterBalancedOilMkt120712xe121575教程.pdf

GLOBAL Better Balanced Oil Market Inside Lowering Brent price targets on moderating demand and better supply Lowering Brent price targets on moderating demand and better supply 2 We are lowering our price targets on Brent crude for 2012 through 2015 as global oil markets move towards a better supply-demand balance. Prices and Spreads 4  Our new and prior price targets are $108 / $116 per bbl for 2012, $106 / $121 for Supply-Demand Balances 6 2013, $116 / $128 for 2014, and $118 / $138 for 2015. Global Macro Factors and Capital Flows 11  Our analyses suggest annual demand growth will trend towards 1 million barrels Supply: Can Recent Growth be sustained?13 per day (MM BPD) over the next few years versus our original range of 1.3 to 2.0 Demand 18 MM BPD. Inventory Trends 26  We expect production growth to keep pace with most demand scenarios . Days Cover Trends 29 Supply: Strong Like Bull but Longer-term Challenges Remain The U.S. Market in Pictures 32  Going forward, annual production growth of approximately 1 MM BPD in North The Longer View 35 America should help alleviate chronically tight supply-demand balances.  The recent OPEC production surge is unlikely to persist